Economists and others predicting dire consequences for South Africa as a result of the NUMSA strike could “Go to Hell!” So said – according to media reports – a senior NUMSA official, when asked to comment on the current strike’s impact on the economy.
Read these words alongside the statement from SEIFSA, the steel and engineering employer’s group, which quoted the local CEO of an unnamed American car manufacturer as saying that he was under increasing pressure from head office to close the South African operation and move to somewhere with a more stable labour dispensation.
“Hell” may be a lot closer than the NUMSA official realises. It’s what happens when no-one wants to invest in your country, when no-one wants to do business with you, when no-one has jobs, and as a result no-one has food, education or healthcare.
Right now, “Hell” is called South Sudan. Does NUMSA really want to turn South Africa into South Sudan?
Don’t for one moment believe that the car-maker is not serious – and it’s either Ford or General Motors, because there are only two big US car-makers in South Africa. The one has undergone a major turnaround; the other, under new CEO, Mary Barra, is in the process. My guess is that it might well be GM, because Barra herself is under huge pressure, swamped by product recall after recall. Ford’s in better shape at the moment and might be more able to withstand labour ructions in a far-off subsidiary.
Close GM and you’ll have to close Port Elizabeth, too. Is that what NUMSA wants?
Many of our unionists are not only steeped in old-fashioned Marxist ideology, but also believe that the state will provide if business goes away. They’ll point fondly to Cuba or Venezuela, and remind their critics that Cuba took on the USA and won, and Venezuela did much the same, while increasing the standard of living of the poor.
Well, Cuba’s Marxism has worn pretty thin and although its people are far better educated than most South Africans (and quite a few Americans), it’s sliding towards the market-based kind of socialism that modern China has perfected, just way quicker. I’d be very interested, by the way, to see just how far NUMSA would get in modern China.
Venezuela, on the other hand, is a basket case. Certainly, the plight of the poor has been alleviated by petro-dollars, but at the cost of investment into the country’s infrastructure. Now that the oil is becoming harder and more costly to refine (Venezuela has a particularly nasty blend of dark, dirty oil), the future is very bleak. The middle class has been impoverished, the poor remain, well…poor. It’s not an enticing future. Is this what NUMSA wants?
Come back for a moment to our un-named car maker. Ask yourself for a moment if this threat – closing the South African branch of the business and going elsewhere – has happened in any other sector?
Answer? Of course it has. Why on earth would Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Old Mutual, SABMiller and all the other big corporations have moved their head offices to London, Melbourne, and other parts of the globe? In business-speak, it’s called de-risking. Nice to be in South Africa, happy to have the business, but if the place goes belly-up for some or other reason, we’re safely out of it.
The car-makers are already headquartered abroad: Detroit, Stuttgart, Munich, Tokyo. They won’t blink when it comes to moving. BMW has already said South Africa has missed out on a new model; Nissan is opening up in Nigeria. (Nigeria? Nigeria? We’re losing business to Nigeria!?! You’ve got to be kidding, right?) NUMSA might think the leaders of these companies lie awake worrying about South Africa, but, trust me, they don’t.
So, NUMSA, here’s the question. When all the mining houses have shut, when the car makers have closed down, when all the ancillary businesses have closed – look at Rustenburg, if you want a foretaste – where will your members find employment? Who will hire them and pay them way more than many workers earn right now in the Far East? When the ratings agencies have downgraded our credit status to less than junk? It won’t be a question of niceties about what is or is not a decent or a living wage then. There simply won’t be any wages at all.
Game over. Welcome to South Sudan.
Is that what you want, NUMSA?