For someone who is not at first glance a naturally gifted orator, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan does a reasonable job. Delivering his 2014 Budget in Parliament, he seems to have left many of his fans delighted and quite a few of his critics mute.

Nedbank’s CEO, Mike Brown nodded approvingly as he faced the SABC’s cameras afterwards: “The Minister has told the world ‘we have a plan’ and the Budget is the implementation of that plan.” Acting BUSA CEO Cas Coovadia described it as “a very good budget”, and Standard Bank’s Chief Economist, Goolam Ballim described it as “a finely poised budget…a nice assembly of ideas.”

There’s no question that his task was difficult. South Africa has just recorded its third year of declining GDP growth – a mere 1.9% – against a backdrop of global uncertainty. Gordhan made repeated reference to ‘The Great Recession’, shifting blame for much of our woes offshore.

He also gave emphatic assurances that the budget ceiling would not be breached, that growth in government spending would be slowed, that wasteful expenditure would be eliminated and that the emphasis was already shifting from consumption towards infrastructure. The budget deficit for 2013/14 would be 4.0% of GDP – slightly lower than the 4.1% as set out in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement – and the medium target for the deficit was now 2.8%.

Good. Markets and ratings agencies like this sort of thing, although it remains to be seen if these numbers can be delivered. On National Treasury’s past performance, I expect that they will be.

But throughout his speech, Gordhan wove golden threads of promise, emphasising, again and again, the role of the National Development Plan, stating that this was a budget for the future: “This budget lays the foundation for the structural reforms envisaged over the next term of this Government. It sets out the resource plan for an intensified implementation of our National Development Plan.”

A little later: “We have to work together to radically change our economy. This means working with our major businesses so that they sparkle across the globe.”

Later still: “Government is committed to providing policy certainty for domestic and foreign investors.”

In other words, this is how we’re going to get to 5% GDP growth, and with that, the fabled increase in jobs that will solve all our problems and, presumably, keep Julius Malema out of Tuynhuys. Some years ago, 6% was the magic figure and how that has changed to 5% is mysterious, but not subject for examination here.

Policy certainty is key to attracting both domestic and foreign investment, which are critical components of boosting growth. Gordhan knows this, as his words above show. But if you go through his budget speech with a fine tooth comb, policy certainty is the one thing conspicuous by its absence.

We were told that Trade and Industry minister Rob Davies is working on “a holistic framework for investment.” What does that mean?

“Increased support and tax relief for entrepreneurs and small business is proposed”…but the details are still to be worked out. On the National Health Insurance scheme, “Improvements have to be made in public sector health delivery, and the high cost of private health care has to be reduced.” How, we are not told. “Special economic zones are allocated R3.6 billion to promote value-added exports.” What exactly are those exports?

It’s all a little fuzzy, a little warm, “the stuff that dreams are made of”, as Prospero had it in Shakespeare’s The Tempest. There’s nothing in this budget to convince an investor that 5% or 6% GDP growth is just around the corner or even possible in Gordhan’s much-vaunted ‘medium term’. No big reduction in company tax, no dramatic easing of labour law (although he did reveal 56,000 enrolments in the first month of the new Youth Employment Tax Incentive scheme – to be fair, that’s impressive).

A final thought: Gordhan threw down two wild cards.

One, Gordhan whispered the words “wealth tax”. If that comes to pass, it will take us straight into the zone marked ‘France’, which has just such a tax, and whose economy is one of Europe’s most sluggish. It’s an economy killer.

Two, the commitment to “Pursue the exploration of shale gas to provide an additional energy source for our economy.” Yes – fracking! If it goes ahead, and subterranean reserves are as big as some people believe, it’s a game changer. With our own independent fuel supply, doubling our growth rate and making a massive dent in unemployment becomes a distinct possibility.

Then Pravin Gordhan’s dreams come true.