I was on leave with my family last week in Mauritius. Many of you would know it well, a tropical island paradise replete with a host of South African brands. We ventured into Grand Baie and Port Louis – everywhere we turned we saw logos that would have been just as familiar in Boksburg or Melkbosstrand: Pam Golding Estates, Steers, Standard Bank, Food Lovers Market and plenty more.
Mauritius is also about to have an election: current Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam versus a very grizzled and rather mighty old dog called Sir Anerood Jugnauth. Highly placed political sources (this is journalist-speak for ‘local taxi drivers and a waiter at the hotel’) tell me that Jugnauth, an 84-year old former Prime Minister and President, might even sneak in. The election takes place in early December – so we shall see.
What struck me very forcibly was not only the vibrancy of the Mauritian political landscape – lots of colourful party bunting everywhere, and in that sense no different from our own – but the possibility of real change. Jugnauth or Ramgoolam – one or the other would win and it would be close.
That’s unlike South Africa. Here, the possibility of change recedes further and further.
In fact, it was in Mauritius, scanning the SA headlines on my computer, that my attention was drawn to a story in the Mail & Guardian, suggesting that ‘a lobby group consisting of senior party leaders from five provinces’ were intending to ask President Jacob Zuma to stay on for another couple of years as President of the ANC.
I am not surprised at all by this because I have written several times over the past few years for suggesting that the only logical way for Jacob Zuma to avoid prosecution is to become President-for-Life. each time I have suggested this, I have been met with guffaws and ridicule.
Logically, however, there is no other option open to the man from Nkandla. And for once, this is not about either the chicken run or the fire pool. It’s about Schabir Shaik and the Arms Deal. The moment Zuma steps down from office, his political opponents will deluge him with criminal charges. The only possible escape might be for his successor – Cyril Ramaphosa? – to offer a presidential pardon or amnesty.
Therefore – and I would do exactly the same if I were in his shoes – Zuma’s only option is to stay in Tuynhuys. For ever.
Sadly for our continent, there is plenty of precedent for him to follow: grateful flunkies kow-tow to the Magnificent Leader and beg him ‘Not To Go – The Nation Needs You’. (This is politician-speak for ‘you are the meal ticket and if you fall, so do we….’) Battered by ‘hard political decisions’, an ‘ungrateful populace’ and hideous journalists who ‘should be fed to the crocodiles’, the Mighty Warrior says that despite his worst misgivings, he’ll force himself to stay for another five years. And another. And another.
In South Africa’s case, for this to happen the Constitution would need to be changed.
The ANC alone does not currently have, and would very likely not get, the two-thirds majority required to implement this. But what about the scenario of an alliance with the EFF – Deputy President Julius Malema? The next President-For-Life Malema?
Just as I have written that Zuma will attempt to win a third term and stay on for ever and day, it’s also why I have previously written that Malema has a very good shot at becoming our next President-but-one or -two.
Mauritius has become the go-to centre for banking, financial services and Africa. It continues to climb higher and higher on the various international rankings for things like foreign investment and ease of doing business. South Africa slips lower and lower down these league tables.
There is a stark difference between the political cultures of the two countries and frankly, I know which one I’d rather have.