Its recent electoral setbacks are forcing the ANC to take a tougher line against perceived threats and opponents.
Old habits die hard. Beneath the ANC’s smooth social democrat exterior lurks a jagged political hard-line that many of its leaders first learnt in exile. In places like Moscow and Tripoli they were taught that if in doubt, crack down, and when you can, purge.
Not that it has much to be too concerned about, at least on the face of it. The party dropped a couple of percentage points overall – so what? It still has as big a majority in Parliament as any politician could ever need. But as deputy secretary general Jessie Duarte conceded earlier this week, the real problem is Gauteng.
We know that the loss of Cape Town and the Western Cape to the DA cost the ANC a massive amount of face. For the beating heart of South Africa’s economy to follow suit two years from now would be an indescribable blow. Therefore, Johannesburg must be held at all costs.
Immediately, the hard-line has kicked in with the appointment of Beleka Mbete as Speaker of Parliament and David Makhura as Premier of Gauteng. Of all Speakers since the advent of democracy, Mbete has been the least impressive, especially when it comes to showing balance, fairness and a lack of favour. No matter – she’s back in the hot seat to ensure that the ANC gets an even easier Parliamentary ride than it has had so far. Makhura’s appointment is a measure of the party’s concern about factions in Gauteng – he’s there to unify and ensure everyone toes the party line. Along with Nomvula Mokonyane, all bar one of the other female Provincial Premiers have also been purged.
But this is just the beginning.
Stalinists may be paranoid, but they are nothing if not thorough. So we can expect several quite unpleasant surprises as the country heads towards the local elections in 2016.
First, the grip on propaganda will tighten. The SABC will become even more slavish towards government (if that’s possible) and opposition parties will feature less and less. The same obsequiousness will apply at those nominally independent media houses which are controlled by influential friends of the party, such as the Guptas.
The use of state security organs against party political opposition will increase, both internally and externally. This means that not only will outfits like the National Intelligance Service be used to monitor Helen Zille and colleagues, but also any perceived dissidence within the ANC itself will be exposed and slapped down.
We have already witnessed the use of both the Hawks and SARS against Julius Malema – not that either of those cases have run their full course yet – but anyone presenting a serious threat to the ANC had better make sure that his or her affairs are strictly in order. I include in that stricture affairs of a sexual nature: politicians are infamous for their philandering, but in the current climate, everyone’s going to have to keep their clothes on at all times, or risk appearing on the front pages of the Sunday tabloids, courtesy of some unofficial official surveillance.
Don’t hope for the criminal justice system to be of much use against this crack-down, either. The politics that have already shaped senior appointments to the benches of the Constitutional Court and Supreme Court of Appeal will intensify. This means more judges, not necessarily of inferior talent, but more inclined to see things the ANC’s way. The chances of a Gauntlett or Budlender being appointed to anything other than the bar in their nearest pub is exactly nil.
Xenophobia, in the shape of restrictions on foreign ownership of land, will increase; so too will violent political protest in areas controlled by the opposition. This means a higher intensity of unpunished trade union violence in the Western Cape.
All of which is a great pity because to retain Johannesburg, a far simpler strategy is available to the ANC. All it has to do is fix the city’s potholes, traffic lights, municipal billing system and electricity supply, and pick up some litter. How difficult can that be?
On second thoughts, the Stalinists are right: a crackdown would be much easier.